November Rate Turning Point: SCFI Keeps Weakening, US Lanes Lose the USD 10,000 Line, and How to Handle the November 15 GRI

As of November 6, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,633.45 points, down 1.46% week on week and weaker for several consecutive weeks. The US West Coast lane was quoted at USD 7,381 per FEU and the US East Coast lane at USD 9,857 per FEU, with both mainline routes falling below the USD 10,000 threshold. Almost at the same moment, several carriers issued notices of increases effective November 15. Spot pricing is loosening on one side while rate increase letters land on the other: which direction should buyers plan against?

The data: index and mainline lanes weakening together

One caveat: the index reflects spot booking prices, and the gap between it and actual settlement prices comes from space tiers, surcharges and peak or off-peak clauses. When calculating cost, the formal quotation from the carrier or forwarder should be the basis.

Why it is falling: three pressures stacking up

The first is returning capacity. Vessels that were pulled from mainline services or had maintenance deferred during peak season are rejoining the trade, and newbuilding deliveries add to the pressure on the supply side. The second is demand being pulled forward. To avoid peak season congestion and tariff uncertainty, this year's Christmas and New Year stocking was clearly brought forward, so shipping demand naturally eased after mid-October. The third is the seasonal lull: November and December are already the tail end of restocking for Europe and the United States, and cargo volumes cannot hold the earlier highs.

The combined result is that carriers cannot fill their slots at spot prices and can only trade price for utilisation. The US East Coast dropping below USD 10,000 and the US West Coast sliding to the low USD 7,000s are direct reflections of that logic.

Why they still push for an increase: blank sailings and contract bargaining

The carriers' increase notices do not ignore the falling spot market. First, they shrink effective capacity through blank sailings and service consolidations to engineer a sense of tight space. Second, annual contract negotiations start at the end of the year, and overly low spot prices would weaken the basis for contract bargaining, so the increase is a posture adopted ahead of talks. Third, although peak season surcharges are retreating, some port congestion fees and bunker adjustments are still being repriced. Whether the November 15 increase actually lands, and by how much, therefore depends on how firmly blank sailings are executed and how quickly volumes recover. The general industry view is that the implementation rate will be discounted.

Four moves for buyers

First, split shipments into finer batches. Orders originally planned as one shipment can be divided into a batch inside the pre-increase window and a later batch in December, using the time gap to hedge price risk. Second, lock space rather than only locking price. In the low season carriers are more willing to guarantee space, so signing a short-term space agreement now is more practical than chasing a lower price later. Third, check the surcharge list. Increases usually come with new surcharge items, and whether an all-in quote really covers everything must be verified item by item. Fourth, raise the contract share moderately. If you have a steady restocking rhythm for 2027, you can lock part of your base volume at today's low spot levels and keep the uncertainty inside a manageable range.

Cost math: how rate moves hit unit cost

Taking a 40HQ loaded with 1,200 pieces and billing by full-container rate, every USD 1,000 drop in freight rate lowers unit logistics cost by about USD 0.83. If a category has a landed cost of USD 30 per unit, that is a cost swing of about 2.8 percentage points. Conversely, if the November 15 increase of USD 500 to USD 1,000 per container is actually implemented, unit cost will rise by USD 0.40 to USD 0.83.

For categories with low unit price and large volume (home storage, holiday decorations), freight rate sensitivity is markedly higher than for high-value, small-volume categories (jewellery accessories, small appliances). Production scheduling and shipment order should therefore be layered by sensitivity, shipping the most sensitive cargo first.

FAQ

Are November freight rates rising or falling?

As of November 6, the SCFI stood at 3,633.45 points, down 1.46% week on week, with the US West Coast at USD 7,381 per FEU and the US East Coast at USD 9,857 per FEU, both trending down. Carriers have nonetheless announced increases from November 15. This is a market where off-season overcapacity coexists with blank sailings to defend pricing, and the actual implementation rate of announced increases is usually below the announced level.

What are the three things buyers should do right now?

Lock space and prices before the increase takes effect, split shipments into finer batches to spread price risk, and check every surcharge and the all-in wording on each quotation line by line.