1. Freight Rates: Strong US, Weak Europe — Structural Divergence
As of early September, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) composite stood at 3,590.05 points, rising for 6 to 7 consecutive weeks (source: public data from Shanghai Shipping Exchange). By route: Far East–US West Coast rates were about USD 7,242/FEU, US East Coast about USD 10,324/FEU, having broken through the USD 10,000 mark; Far East–Europe was about USD 2,643/TEU and actually weakening. In short, this round of increases is driven by the US routes, while European routes are relatively mild.
Factors pushing US-bound rates higher include: 4.3 million TEU of containers stuck worldwide, exceeding the 2022 pandemic peak; schedule reliability falling to 56.4%; and major carriers canceling about 47 sailings in weeks 37–41 to control capacity. The industry expects high US-bound rates to most likely last through year-end, with Q4 peak-season freight overall 15%–25% above normal (source: cross-referenced Drewry and multiple freight-forwarder industry reports).
2. Tariffs and Compliance: Costs Shift from “Freight” to “Institutions”
More worrying than freight is institutional cost. On the US side, the global and reciprocal tariffs of early 2026 triggered a rush of shipments in the first half; CBP has strengthened importer audits since September 18, and orders transshipped via third countries such as Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil face certificate-of-origin verification and anti-circumvention investigation risks. On the EU side, the small-parcel duty exemption was removed on July 1, EU ETS Phase 2 adds about USD 40–80/TEU on inbound containers, and the CBAM carbon border mechanism is now in force — combined with shipping carbon costs, landed prices for some goods may rise 3%–6% (source: European Commission and industry research).
For small and mid-sized stores, this means: even if factory quotes stay unchanged, landed costs can rise significantly due to freight, ETS and tariff audits. If you quote using only “base freight + PSS,” peak season can easily blow the budget — one importer case showed that surcharges alone (PSS + GRI + SPS + container repositioning) added thousands of dollars per container over the base rate.
3. Price-Locking Strategy: Complete by End of September, Keep Flexibility
Given current market signals, we recommend overseas buyers lock space and prices for Q4 orders before the end of September, reserving about 15% price flexibility:
- Lock by route. US routes are hard to bring down; use the September window to sign long-term contracts for space; European routes are weaker, so lock in batches after the holiday pullback, but note the rigid rise of EU carbon costs.
- Back up with multiple alliances and channels. Choose 2–3 carriers or freight-forwarder alliances for the same destination port as mutual backup, reducing rollover and last-minute surcharge risks.
- Prepare customs documents in advance. E-signature policies such as Saudi SABER and Indonesian SNI are fully enforced from September; paper documents may be rejected — prepare 7–10 days ahead.
- Insure high-value orders. Cargo and delay insurance premiums are typically only 0.1%–0.3% of cargo value, but are very cost-effective against the chain of losses from stockouts, rollovers and tariff changes.
- Dynamically re-verify origin compliance. For transshipment trade, re-check HS codes and the certificate-of-origin chain to prepare for normalized anti-circumvention investigations after November.
4. ESTROUTE’s Practical Advice
For small and mid-sized stores without a dedicated logistics team, ESTROUTE’s value is to bring the above actions forward: run a landed-cost calculation (factory price + freight + surcharges + tariffs + carbon costs) before ordering, then decide between FOB and DDP quoting; proactively remind clients to lock prices in batches before peak season rather than placing one huge order. Instead of fighting the whole industry for space in October, lock 80% of Q4 volume at relatively certain prices in September. Follow more logistics and trade updates on the industry news list; for cost-calculation support, contact ESTROUTE customization services.
Want more logistics and trade updates? Follow the industry news list, or contact ESTROUTE customization services for landed-cost calculations and price-locking support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will US-bound freight rates rise further? When is the best time to lock prices?
SCFI is rising continuously and US-bound space is tight; the industry expects high rates to most likely last through year-end. Complete Q4 space and price locking before the end of September, reserve about 15% price flexibility, and prioritize long-term contracts for space.
How much will the EU carbon tariff (CBAM) affect the goods I source?
With CBAM and EU ETS Phase 2 combined, landed prices for some goods may rise 3%–6%; European buyers should verify supplier carbon data and HS codes in advance and include carbon costs in quotes to avoid budget overruns after arrival.
Is transshipment trade still viable now? What should I watch out for?
It is doable but requires more caution: US CBP has strengthened importer audits since September 18, and orders transshipped via third countries face certificate-of-origin verification and anti-circumvention investigation risks. Prepare customs documents 7–10 days ahead and re-verify HS codes.
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